Leadership: System Thinking, the Iceberg
A fool sees only the surface of things; the wise look into the depth of causes. Boethius
Gregg’s Reflection
Gregg’s Reflection
Seeing Beneath the Surface: A Systems Thinking Reflection
In this post, we explore the Iceberg Model as a lens for both spiritual growth and organizational clarity. Much like contemplative practice, systems thinking urges us to go beneath the surface—past reactions to root causes. Here, we weave scripture, ancient wisdom, and modern insights to examine each layer of the iceberg and how awareness at every level deepens our understanding of reality and our ability to live with intention.
Events: What Just Happened?
Events are the surface—the visible, immediate things we react to. Many look for immediate causation, while the true causes may have been operating for a while. Our tendency is to overlook the interconnectedness of systems.
I’ve seen this play out in churches when leaders don’t see the the connectedness within the system. We had a Senior Pastor who split responsibilities with our Associate Pastor. The Senior Pastor was responsible for Worship, and the Associate Pastor was responsible for Evangelism. Since the church was not growing (see my post on Life Stages of Organizations), pressure ramped up on the Associate Pastor.
When he suggested that our Worship style was turning off young families, the Senior Pastor denied the connection. The resulting actions did not change the underlying situation, because they ignored the impact our Worship had on bringing in new families. In situations like this, we look for someone to blame instead of looking for root causes.
Patterns: What’s Been Happening?
When we look a little deeper, we see a pattern. When we see repetition over time, we’re invited to move from reaction to recognition. Awareness of patterns allows us to observe God’s invitations—or our resistance—in unfolding rhythms. Proverbs 20:5 tells us:
The purposes of a person’s heart are deep waters, but one who has insight draws them out.
When we moved the company into a total quality mindset after our father died, our people helped us see connections that were negatively impacting our heavy equipment business. With this work, we discovered many of the problems slowing down the repair of customer equipment came because of delays in getting parts.
In creating a systems solution, we reconstructed our Service office, and moved the Parts staff into customer focused teams who were all working in the same space. By having several teams, each focused on a customer type, Paving, Excavating, Grading, they could deepen their expertise by having a smaller scope of products as their focus.
We cross trained the teams so they could continue work with a team member sick or absent. We instilled the idea that the work wasn’t done until the team was done, so everyone helped complete the work of the team. We shortened our repair time and became much more responsive to our customers.
Trends: What Forces Are at Play?
Trends reveal not just repetition, but direction. Where are things moving? What forces are guiding us? This is the place for '5 Whys' and for Spirit-led discernment. If you ask ‘Why’ five times, you will get down to the level of Mental Models. Often, the solutions we choose based on surface observations of what’s happened come back to haunt us because they are not getting at root causes. My father in our business would create a policy based on events that happened. Over a decade, there were many policies, none of them coming out of seeing below the surface, would conflict and keep us from creating systemic solutions.
This is typical in my Lutheran tribe where 90% of the churches are on plateau or decline, yet they cling to traditionalism, and do not adapt to a changing environment (See my post on Life at the Edge of Chaos). Without wise leaders who can see into the depths of things, and have enough credibility to be heard, these trends will continue.
I knew a pastor, Larry Arganbright, who pastored several large churches that found new growth under his leadership. He once explained his philosophy of leadership in this way:
It is my job to spot the next wave the Holy Spirit is sending our way, and to prepare our people to hop on it and ride it.
Trends we saw emerging in our business shaped our strategy. Profits margins on new equipment declined for years. Changes in tax code moved customers from buying to renting equipment. We started a separate rental division, and grew the 38th largest rental business in the country in five years, and created the bulk of the value we when we sold the business.
Structures: What Systems Support This?
Structures are the invisible scaffolding of life: systems, routines, habits, hierarchies. We are often blind to their influence until we slow down and ask: What’s underneath this pattern?
In Natural Church Development, one of the eight characteristics of a healthy church is Functional Structures. Do the structures serve the mission, or does the church work to maintain an outdated, dysfunctional structure?
Mental Models: What Thinking Sustains This?
At the root of the iceberg are our mental models: assumptions, stories, and subconscious beliefs. This is the contemplative ground—where surrender, renewal, and transformation take root.
Spiritual maturity and effective leadership both require the courage to see beneath the surface. When we become students of systems—inner and outer—we move beyond reaction to reflection, beyond impulse to wisdom. May this iceberg guide you deeper into awareness, grace, and Spirit-led change.
Carl Jung’s work is deeply aligned with the Mental Models layer of the Iceberg Model. His development of depth psychology focused on the unconscious forces, archetypes, and symbolic patterns that shape behavior—essentially what lies beneath our surface reactions, structures, and even our conscious beliefs. He tells us:
The call to “look within” is a call to become aware of the mental and emotional constructs (i.e., models) that shape perception and action. His work mirrors the spiritual process of metanoia—a deep shift in mind and being.
Dwell on the image of the Iceberg. Contemplate the questions asked at each level. Each question draws us deeper. It took years for me to start seeing the systems, structures and mental models at work in organizations and in my own thinking. How might looking deeper change your approach to leadership? Blessings
Journaling Prompts:
What situation am I reacting to right now? Am I focusing only on what is visible and immediate? What might be beneath this moment? How is God inviting me to pause rather than react? Have I seen this situation—or my response—before? What patterns are emerging? Am I allowing past solutions to become today’s limitations? Are there unspoken “rules” I’m following that I’ve never examined? What belief or assumption may no longer be true, but I still act as if it is? What is God inviting me to release or renew in the way I think and perceive?
Scripture
For the Lord sees not as man sees: man looks on the outward appearance, but the Lord looks on the heart.
1 Samuel 16:7
The purposes of a person’s heart are deep waters, but one who has insight draws them out.
Proverbs 20:5
Be transformed by the renewing of your minds, so that you may discern what is the will of God…
Romans 12:2
Ancient Quotes
A fool sees only the surface of things; the wise look into the depth of causes.
Boethius, The Consolation of Philosophy, Book I
The eye sees the things of the body, but the mind sees the things of the soul.
St. Clement of Alexandria, The Stromata, Book VI
Enter into yourself, and in the interior man dwells the truth.
St. Augustine, On True Religion, Chapter 39
Be not content with the surface of things; seek the roots, the first causes.
St. Gregory of Nazianzus, Oration 2, On Easter
Modern Writing
Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.
Carl Jung, The Undiscovered Self, 1957
Your vision will become clear only when you can look into your own heart. Who looks outside, dreams; who looks inside, awakens.
Carl Jung, Collected Works, Vol. 10, Paragraph 400
There is in all visible things a hidden wholeness.
Thomas Merton, Seeds of Contemplation, p. 47
The spiritual journey is a process of dismantling the false self, layer by layer, to uncover the Divine Presence already within.
Thomas Keating, Invitation to Love: The Way of Christian Contemplation, p. 39
As we penetrate deeper into ourselves, we move closer to God, who dwells in our depths.
Thomas Keating, Open Mind, Open Heart, p. 54
The human condition is to take everything at face value, and that is precisely what contemplative practice undoes.
Richard Rohr, The Naked Now: Learning to See as the Mystics See, p. 13
We must learn to penetrate things and find God there.
Richard Rohr, Everything Belongs: The Gift of Contemplative Prayer, p. 97
Today’s problems come from yesterday’s solutions.
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization, p. 57
The key to seeing reality systemically is seeing circles of causality, not straight lines.
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, p. 73
Mental models are deeply ingrained assumptions or generalizations that influence how we understand the world and how we take action.
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, p. 8
Most of us walk around with an incomplete and outdated mental model of reality. And we keep trying to solve problems using the same model that created them.
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline, p. 163
The deeper you go in systems thinking, the more you see that nothing stands alone.
Charlotte Roberts, The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook, p. 27
If we want to change behavior in the long term, we must understand the system in which that behavior is embedded.
Charlotte Roberts, The Dance of Change, p. 11
Systems principle: Structure determines behavior and performance. If you have a faith practice, you have created a structure that guides your thoughts and behaviors. It probably originated in your childhood with your family. As you’ve gained independence of action and thought, you may have adjusted even redesigned your faith practice. Or you may have chosen to stay with the orthodoxy you learned as a child.
I find comfort in a simple spiritual practice described by the Dalai Lama. ‘This is my simple religion. There is no need for temples, no need for complicated philosophy. Our own brain, our own heart is our temple; the philosophy is kindness.’
Each religion has created a structure that defines membership in that faith. For example, attendance, personal commitment, hierarchy of spiritual leaders, communication norms among members and with spiritual beings are some of the elements of the existing structure. The faith practice defines what it means to “belong” to that religion.
How flexible or permeable are the boundaries that contain that religion? How open is the faith practice to the stranger or seeker? What does membership in that structure require for entry and sustaining membership? What are the consequences of leaving that religious practice? How do you experience the people and practices that make up that religion?
Charlotte Roberts, in a personal reflection written for this post.
Structures are never an end in themselves. Their only purpose is to release and support the work of God.
Christian A. Schwarz, Natural Church Development: A Guide to Eight Essential Qualities of Healthy Churches, 1996, p. 37
If a structure does not serve ministry, it must be changed or eliminated. God’s work should not be held hostage by outdated systems.
Christian A. Schwarz, Natural Church Development, p. 40
Every organization has structures—either conscious or unconscious, healthy or unhealthy. The key is to develop structures that support life, not control it.
Christian A. Schwarz, Color Your World with Natural Church Development, 2005, p. 51
Churches with high quality functional structures regularly evaluate and adjust them based on fruitfulness, not tradition.”
Christian A. Schwarz, The ABCs of Natural Church Development, 2007, p. 82
Healthy structures grow like a trellis—not to limit growth, but to support it.
Christian A. Schwarz, paraphrased summary of the trellis/vine metaphor used in NCD coaching materials
The issue is not structure vs. no structure. The issue is whether the structure enables or hinders what God is doing.
Christian A. Schwarz, Color Your World, p. 54